Morningstar's $780B Benchmark Is Now the Anchor Every SpaceX Investor Has to Argue Against

The Number That Changes the Conversation

Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens published a discounted cash flow model on SpaceX on June 2, 2026, assigning a fair-value estimate of $780 billion. That single figure is now the most important number in the deal—not because it is correct, but because it is the only publicly available independent benchmark. Every institutional investor who touches the roadshow must reconcile it or dismiss it on the record.

SpaceX is reportedly targeting a $75 billion fundraise and a valuation of $1.75 trillion, making this the largest IPO in history. Morningstar's DCF valuation of $780 billion is roughly 48% below SpaceX's private market valuation of $1.5 trillion, and 55% below the IPO target. That gap is not accounting noise. It is a structural claim about how much of the IPO price rests on cash flows versus narrative.

What the DCF Actually Says

Owens did not dismiss SpaceX wholesale. Morningstar values SpaceX's launch business and Starlink satellite business at approximately $611 billion, while applying probability weighting to different development scenarios for the AI business, totaling approximately $170 billion, resulting in a total fair value of approximately $780 billion.

The core space and connectivity assets receive serious valuation. Morningstar assigned SpaceX a "Narrow Moat" rating, recognizing the cost advantages brought by its reusable rockets and Starlink's economies of scale. The numbers support it: Starlink achieved $11.2 billion in revenue during 2025, representing a 50% year-over-year increase, with operating profit exceeding $4.4 billion.

The valuation implodes on xAI. Morningstar conducted three scenario simulations for AI businesses such as orbital data centers: in the most optimistic scenario, AI infrastructure could create approximately $1.3 trillion in value, but the probability of occurrence is only 7%; meanwhile, the probability of a shelved scenario is as high as 43%, which would destroy over $81 billion in value. That probability weighting is the entire argument. The bull case for SpaceX at $1.75 trillion requires a high-confidence view on AI compute economics that Morningstar explicitly refuses to assign.

The 67x Sales Multiple Problem

AJ Bell's Dan Coatsworth offers the sharpest retail-facing comparison. "A $1.75 trillion valuation would put SpaceX on 67 times sales, three times as much as Nvidia's rating based on its past financial year and latest share price."

Nvidia, one of the most profitable technology companies in the world, trades at roughly 22 times trailing revenue. SpaceX's proposed multiple is more than four times that, applied to a company with an accumulated deficit of $41.3 billion disclosed in its S-1.

The 67x figure oversimplifies: multiples compress when growth accelerates, and SpaceX's revenue trajectory is genuine. But the comparison has tactical force for any investor running a sanity check without access to sell-side research. When the most profitable semiconductor company on earth trades at 22x and you are being asked to pay 67x for a company that posted a net loss, the burden of proof shifts to the buyer.

xAI Is the Swing Variable, and the Moat Is Undefined

Morningstar's specific concern about xAI, the AI company Musk folded into SpaceX in an all-stock deal in February 2026, is pointed. Owens wrote that xAI poses a "material threat of value destruction" and that its competitive position relative to OpenAI and Anthropic leaves its "economic moat indeterminate."

Owens added: "We don't see Grok as one of the leading AI labs today."

xAI lost $6 billion in 2025 and is expected to burn $10 billion in 2026, and its Grok chatbot faces direct competition from OpenAI and Anthropic. That burn is material. SpaceX absorbs it. SpaceX posted a net loss of $4.94 billion last year on $18.7 billion in revenue, compared with net income of $791 million on $14 billion of revenue in 2024. The profitability trajectory reversed course after the xAI acquisition closed.

One concrete revenue source exists: SpaceX signed a contract with Anthropic to provide AI compute for $1.25 billion per month, though either company can terminate the agreement on 90 days' notice. A 90-day termination clause does not anchor a valuation.

The Anchor Effect and Timing

Morningstar published first. The roadshow runs through June 11. Pricing is expected that evening. SPCX shares are set to begin trading on Nasdaq on Friday, June 12, 2026.

Any sell-side research from Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citi, JPMorgan, and the 18 other underwriting banks will be measured against the $780 billion anchor. Underwriters have incentive to publish higher. Morningstar has none. That asymmetry is what gives the $780 billion figure its institutional staying power, regardless of the IPO price.

Morningstar itself acknowledged that "with a small initial float boosted by almost every investment bank on the planet, buoyant investor appetite for AI infrastructure bids, and an unprecedented path to inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 Index just 15 trading days after the IPO, we expect SpaceX's share price will likely survive separation and may even ascend, at least for a time."

The distinction matters: Morningstar is not predicting an IPO failure. It is challenging the long-term price.

The sequencing also matters for capital flow. Both OpenAI and Anthropic have now filed confidentially with the SEC, with OpenAI targeting a September 2026 public debut and Anthropic closely behind. The sequential demand on institutional capital is material: investors who allocate to SPCX at a $1.75 trillion valuation will need to retain capacity for two additional large-scale AI company listings before year-end.

What to Watch

1. June 11, pricing night: Watch whether SpaceX prices at, above, or below $135. Any downward move before pricing signals softer institutional demand than the roadshow suggests.

2. Post-IPO S-1 revenue disclosure vs. Morningstar's model: The $780 billion figure rests on Morningstar's assumptions about Starship ramp rates and AI margin profiles. The S-1 revenue breakdown—particularly the split between Starlink, launch, and xAI-attributed compute—will validate or undercut those assumptions. Segment reporting will decide.

3. Lockup expiry around December 2026: The initial 180-day lockup for insiders is expected to expire around December 2026. If SpaceX's first post-IPO earnings report shows continued net losses and xAI burn accelerating, the stock faces double pressure: insider supply plus fundamental disappointment.

4. Competing independent research: Morningstar is currently alone with a public DCF. If a second independent firm publishes before June 11 at a materially different number, that either validates or isolates the $780 billion estimate. Either outcome reshapes late-stage allocation decisions.

5. Anthropic compute contract signals: The $1.25 billion per month Anthropic contract is the most concrete AI revenue line in the S-1. Any signal of renegotiation, expansion, or termination in the first two quarters of trading will function as a proxy for the entire xAI thesis.